The new Advanced Statistics available from this season bring a whole new insight into Champions Hockey League games by measuring Expected Goals!
Expected goals estimate how many goals on average teams were expected to score from chances they created. We saw a total of 681 goals scored in 122 games so far, but the biggest game of the season is still ahead of us – the 2021/22 CHL Final!
Let’s compare how our two finalists, Rögle Ängelholm and Tappara Tampere, faired throughout the season and dive into the advanced stats behind their historic runs!
Group Stage
In the Group Stage, both finalists were among the top three teams with the biggest offensive threats, only EV Zug recorded more Expected Goals than Rögle or Tappara.
Such attacking prowess was key in Rögle and Tappara finishing top of their groups in the Group Stage.
| Rank | Team | Expected Goals Created |
| 1 | EV Zug | 22,73 |
| 2 | Rögle Ängelholm | 21,92 |
| 3 | Tappara Tampere | 21,33 |
| 4 | Frölunda Gothenburg | 21,17 |
| ... | ... | ... |
Their best Group Stage performances were Tappara’s 4-2 win against Skellefteå AIK, where the Finns recorded 4,68 xGs.
For Rögle, their best offensive showing of the Group Stage was their surprisingly close 3-2 win over SønderjyskE Vojens, where the SHL club managed to score just three, despite recording 5,04 xGs.
Now onto the Playoffs!
Tappara’s road to the Final
What was the main reason behind Tappara’s historic run to the CHL Final? Take a look at the chart below and you’ll see why – it’s their defence!
The Liiga side faced just 1,71 xGs on average, making them the best team this season in preventing opponents from creating chances.
As visualised on the chart, there was only a single game where Tappara conceded a slightly above average amount of Expected Goals, otherwise, they are well below average. Their solid defence is further helped by a firm and steady netminder in net, Christian Heljanko, who’s recorded back-to-back clean sheets in Tappara’s last two CHL games.
Rögle will have to find ways to break down this tight defence, otherwise the European Trophy could be heading to Finland this season.
Tappara’s Round of 16 game against the Växjö Lakers was their toughest and closest tie of the season. The Finns clinched their Quarter-Finals spot with two late goals in the final period and had to hold on right down to the final minutes, withstanding Växjö’s late surge. This was a very tight game!
Their efforts in the Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals were very convincing, as Tappara ended their games with 85%, 86% and 69% Expected Wins. Their Quarter-Finals 4-0 win against the Rouen Dragons in France was their best of the season, just take a look at the stats!
Rögle’s journey through the Playoffs
Rögle’s road to the Final saw many big moments and tight games which have mostly gone their way, as the SHL team enter the final game of the 2021/22 season with a 10-2 record.
The chart below represents their offensive and defensive effort measured by Expected Goals in all 12 of their games this season.
Sparta Prague were a tough team to defeat in the Quarter-Finals. The key to Rögle’s success was the First Game which they won 5-2, despite only having a 35% Expected Win. This three-goal buffer proved valuable as in the end, the First Game result was the decider in the matchup.
In the Semi-Finals, Rögle clashed with fellow Swedish rivals Frölunda Gothenburg, the reigning CHL champions. Rögle were outperformed in xGs in both games but were able to find the back of the net eight times while Frölunda couldn’t find a way to get more pucks into Christoffer Rifalk’s net.
So what is Rögle’s biggest power? Goaltending! Rögle goalies have saved six goals more than expected (only 13 goals against vs 19 expected goals against).
This is by far the most among all goalies in the Playoffs and is one of the main reasons behind Rögle’s success this season.
Tune in to the CHL Final on Tuesday, March 1, at 19:00 CET!